11/27/2020

Waiting For The Bubble To Burst In Boise 

Anecdotally, we have heard of potential home purchasers saying they were waiting until home prices dropped to buy a house.  Some have even referred to the steady, and strong, rise in home prices here in the Treasure Valley as creating a bubble.

With average Single Family home prices in Ada County having risen by 35.9% since 2016, there’s reason for some to compare that kind of increase to what occurred in the run-up to the real estate market bubble bursting in 2008. 

But, the run-up in prices is the only similarity.  Since, 2008, loan qualifying and other requirements and protections for buyers that have been put in place, make sure that sure that a borrower’s default risk is all but eliminated, making mortgagors’ positions secure.

The real estate market here did not start returning until 2012.  From 2012 through 2017 the median price increased by an average  8.6% per year.  From 2018 through 2020 year-to-date the median price increase has averaged 11.3 per year.

Why? In this case it’s demand – demand fueled by growth, The Boise area is a great place to live.  That’s no secret anymore, and those who don’t like where they are, are coming here.   Additionally, it’s inventory, or the lack of it.  Owners here like it here.  Unless there’s a family issue that forces a move  like a job change or a need for more bedrooms, owners are staying put.  Finally, historically low rates are an opportunity to make the move and have very favorable mortgage payments.

Demand, tight inventory, low rates.  When any of those begin to go the other way, the market will move accordingly.  But, no bubble is going to burst.  These elements, one or more at a time, will be evident by how they trend. 

So, keep an eye on our Real Estate Market Stats page.  You’ll be able to pick up the market trends easily from the charts and graphs showing various metrics. 

A Realtor is Not a Salesperson

Their Value is as Your Consultant and Transaction Manager

They may be primary in helping you find your next home, or, preparing your current one for the market, but managing the purchase, or sale, to a favorable outcome is where a Realtor’s competence and experience benefits the client. And, here’s how that value is earned:

For a Buyer:

- Assist in finding an appropriate financing method modeled to the client’s financial needs.
- Developing a properly structured offer to best secure the buyer’s interest.
- Working through the Inspection and Appraisal contingencies.
- Auditing the closing statement, making sure it reflects the conditions of the contract.

For a Seller:

- Developing an action plan for preparing the house to be put on the market.
- Evaluating the property against recent comparable sales to determine value.
- Managing, and monitoring the showing activity while the house is on the market.
- Evaluating offers for conditions that may be favorable or unfavorable to the Seller.
- Managing the required action processes during the escrow period.
- Auditing the closing statement, making sure it reflects the conditions of the contract.

The value of a Realtor is in safeguarding his or her client’s equity in a very high-value transaction. Additionally, the client has a Risk Manager safeguarding their interest.

Managing the Home Selling and/or Buying Cycle

If you are planning on selling your home this year, and most likely, buying another, the first thing to do is establish a timeline.  Even if the move comes about unexpectedly, like a new job in another location, knowing how long each element in the process can take will help with your sense of control.

Seasonal home selling and buying activity begins to ramp-up right after the start of the year and peaks in June.  Then, activity tapers off through the remainder of the year.

We, like many others who report real estate activity, do monthly results reports detailing how many homes sold in the previous month.  May and June are usually the peak sales months.  July and August drop slightly, before the activity really slows for the remainder of the year.  But, as you’ll see below, those numbers are a reflection of activity that happened some time earlier.

Here are some things to consider that will help in planning the best time to put your house on the market:

 
A home is counted as “Sold” when the transaction is recorded

  For2019, in Ada County:

  -  Existing Single Family Homes were on the market for an average of 25 days

  -  The number of days from Pending to Sold was 31

  -  Thus, the average number of days from Listing to Closing was 56 days

  -  So, sales results for, say, June, are really offers accepted sometime in May

  -  . . . for homes listed sometime in April

  -  Listing-to-Pending days, by quarter: Q1=32 / Q2=19 / Q3=22 / Q4=30

Don’t start counting-back on the calendar just yet.  In order for your house to return its full measure of equity to you, it has to outshine the competition.  It has to be in its best condition.  Most homes need a lot of prepping before they’re ready to list.

Figure out what needs to be done, and how long to get it done.  Then, together with the bullet-point data from above, work back from your selected move date to determine when your plan has to be activated.

Finally, pricing.  The market is made when a buyer and seller agree on a price.  And, at that point the seller’s equity is maximized.  The selling price of all the homes listed in Ada County for 2019 was 99.8% of the asking price.  Rely on your Realtor.  They can price your home to the market, maximizing your return, while selling it within your timeframe.

Selling To An iBuyer

iBuyers are technology-centric real estate companies.  Zillow is the most familiar, others are Open Door, Offer Pad, and Redfin.  If you have a house that meets their criteria, they'll make you a cash offer to by your house as-is.  So, the obvious benefit to these sellers is a quick cash sale.  If that's the seller's need, then an iBuyer is worth considering,  Otherwise, a seller may close on their property with more equity by being represented by a real estate professional . . .a lot more money.  Here is a graphic by Fidelity National Mortgage comparing iBuyers with Real Estate Agents.

Boise Area Housing Market Overview
November Results

It's the slow part of the annual cycle, but the market is continuing to trend positively . . .if maybe moderating some from the rate of the immediately preceding years.  (check out the updated charts and graphs on our website's Stats page):